Pakistan's role in Afghan peace process - more on trilateral meeting in Islamabad

Regional Leaders Consider Paths for an Afghan Peace
By Declan Walsh (Islamabad) and Alissa J. Rubin (Kabul)
February 17, 2012
The New York Times

ISLAMABAD - The prospect of talks with the Taliban inched closer on Thursday when the leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran met to explore ways of pushing the nascent peace process forward.

The two-day trilateral meeting hosted by the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, comes as his Afghan counterpart, Hamid Karzai, claims to have opened direct discussions with the Taliban for the first time in the 11-year-old insurgency.

In an interview published in The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, President Karzai said the talks had taken place over the past month thanks to an American-sponsored initiative anchored in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar.

The Taliban, who frequently deride Mr. Karzai as an “American puppet,” denied any such talks had taken place. “The Islamic Emirates have never talked with Kabul’s powerless administration,” said a Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, in an e-mail statement.

Such conflicting statements have become common in a nervy process driven by rumors and speculation and which, at least until now, had all the clarity of a hall of mirrors.

The current talks in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, are significant because all players agree that Pakistan will play a crucial role in determining the success of any talks, largely because the Taliban leaders — and many fighters — are believed to be sheltering in Pakistan’s lawless western region.

Last month Pakistan permitting Taliban representatives, many of whom are believed to be based in or around the cities of Karachi and Quetta, to travel to Qatar to meet with American representatives.

Yet the extent and nature of any Pakistani role in peace talks remain deeply contentious, marred by deep-rooted suspicion among Afghan, Western and even Taliban officials after decades of Pakistani meddling in Afghan affairs.

In Kabul, Western and Afghan officials suggested that Pakistan was using the trilateral meetings to provide a counterweight to American efforts to open a door to negotiations with the Taliban.

The officials speculate that Pakistan may try to set up a meeting between senior Taliban commanders and Mr. Karzai in Pakistan to prove their sincerity in supporting peace and to demonstrate their influence with the Taliban.

Pakistani civilian leaders insist that they are acting in good faith and have thrown their weight behind an “Afghan-led” peace process. “We will not block any process leading towards reconciliation,” the foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, told a small group of reporters late Thursday, referring to the American initiative in Qatar.

“We don’t have a formula for peace talks; in fact I don’t think anyone does yet,” a senior Foreign Ministry official added. “But one thing is clear: It will have to be the Afghans themselves who come up with it.”

Pakistani officials emphasize that they are keen to prove their good faith to their Afghan counterparts. On a recent visit to Kabul, Ms. Khar visited Afghan leaders from ethnic groups that have traditionally been hostile toward Pakistan. Her message, the official said, was the same to each: “Whatever you decide, we will be supportive of you.”

On Thursday, Mr. Zardari told Mr. Karzai that he would extend “full cooperation” to investigators looking into the death of Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mr. Karzai’s main peace negotiator, who was killed in a suicide bombing last year. At the time, many Afghan officials accused Pakistan of orchestrating the assassination.

Pakistan could also leverage its presence in the peace process through its close ally Saudi Arabia, which recently offered to host a second strand of the peace talks in its capital, Riyadh.

A former Obama administration official said the Saudis had proposed the role, expressing unhappiness that Qatar had taken the lead.

On Thursday, Mr. Zardari also held a meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, during which he reiterated his commitment for the “expeditious implementation” of a long-delayed gas pipeline between the two countries, Mr. Zardari’s spokesman said.

That statement is likely to discomfit Washington, which has for years trenchantly opposed the gas project, despite energy shortages in Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan also plan to build a major cross-border electricity transmission line, and to raise the level of bilateral trade to $5 billion a year, Mr. Zardari’s spokesman added.

Officials said a summit meeting involving all three presidents, scheduled to take place on Friday, would also focus on other mutual areas of interest, like border controls, economic development and efforts to tackle drug smuggling.